NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ISU AUB
Points 66.3 71.9
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.3 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 22.8
Points From Free Throws 18.6 16.3
Shooting ISU AUB
Field Goals Made 21.3 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 53.1
Field Goal % 36.5% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 42.2 29.5
2 Point Shooting % 38.3% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 18.6 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 26.3 21.7
Free Throw % 70.8% 74.8%
Ball Control ISU AUB
Rebounds 34.5 38.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 10.2
Turnovers 9.7 13.8
Blocked Shots 2.8 6.0
Steals 9.0 6.1
Fouls 16.3 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Auburn

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ISU AUB
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 73.5 67.1
% of Possessions with ISU AUB
2 Point Attempt 49.3% 36.0%
3 Point Attempt 18.7% 28.8%
Player Fouled 25.2% 23.1%
Turnover 13.8% 19.5%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 12.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ISU AUB
Shot Blocked 11.4% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.9% 31.6%