NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ISU MIZZ
Points 77.3 61.9
Total Points   139.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.7 27.7
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 20.3
Points From Free Throws 18.3 13.9
Shooting ISU MIZZ
Field Goals Made 25.8 20.6
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 50.6
Field Goal % 45.7% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.6 26.7
2 Point Shooting % 50.1% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 28.3%
Free Throws Made 18.3 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 25.8 17.7
Free Throw % 70.8% 78.9%
Ball Control ISU MIZZ
Rebounds 36.6 30.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 8.2
Turnovers 9.7 15.2
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.3
Steals 8.8 6.2
Fouls 15.3 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ISU MIZZ
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 62.0
% of Possessions with ISU MIZZ
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 34.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.6% 30.5%
Player Fouled 26.7% 22.2%
Turnover 14.1% 22.0%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 12.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ISU MIZZ
Shot Blocked 8.5% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 37.1% 25.7%