NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ISU KSU
Points 71.7 60.4
Total Points   132.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.4 25.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 19.6
Points From Free Throws 16.0 15.3
Shooting ISU KSU
Field Goals Made 24.8 19.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 47.5
Field Goal % 41.0% 40.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 12.8
2 Pointers Attempted 41.5 24.8
2 Point Shooting % 45.1% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 28.8%
Free Throws Made 16.0 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 21.2
Free Throw % 70.8% 71.9%
Ball Control ISU KSU
Rebounds 34.1 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.7 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 9.8
Turnovers 8.4 18.3
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.4
Steals 11.1 4.6
Fouls 16.2 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa St

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ISU KSU
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 61.6
% of Possessions with ISU KSU
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 30.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 27.9%
Player Fouled 23.7% 23.1%
Turnover 12.0% 26.1%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 15.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ISU KSU
Shot Blocked 7.3% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 31.7% 31.0%