NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MVSU ALCN
Points 62.1 78.3
Total Points   140.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 43.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 17.1
Points From Free Throws 11.5 18.2
Shooting MVSU ALCN
Field Goals Made 22.1 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 52.1 55.1
Field Goal % 42.5% 49.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 40.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 14.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 11.5 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 25.2
Free Throw % 66.0% 72.2%
Ball Control MVSU ALCN
Rebounds 27.6 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 19.2 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 12.8
Turnovers 12.9 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 1.8
Steals 5.6 7.5
Fouls 15.3 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Miss Val St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MVSU ALCN
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 63.4 71.1
% of Possessions with MVSU ALCN
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 49.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 17.9%
Player Fouled 22.2% 22.5%
Turnover 19.0% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 11.0% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MVSU ALCN
Shot Blocked 3.3% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 40.0%