NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MVSU WMU
Points 56.4 76.1
Total Points   132.5
Points From 2-Pointers 31.3 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 14.1 26.1
Points From Free Throws 11.0 15.0
Shooting MVSU WMU
Field Goals Made 20.3 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 54.8
Field Goal % 36.6% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 32.0
2 Point Shooting % 39.6% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 11.0 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 24.4
Free Throw % 66.0% 61.5%
Ball Control MVSU WMU
Rebounds 29.6 43.0
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 14.1
Turnovers 12.2 11.8
Blocked Shots 1.4 2.9
Steals 6.9 5.6
Fouls 16.1 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miss Val St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MVSU WMU
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 71.3
% of Possessions with MVSU WMU
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 38.2%
3 Point Attempt 20.2% 27.3%
Player Fouled 21.0% 23.4%
Turnover 17.6% 17.1%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MVSU WMU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 2.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 41.0%