NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MVSU VAN
Points 53.5 79.3
Total Points   132.8
Points From 2-Pointers 28.9 38.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.5 22.4
Points From Free Throws 9.1 18.1
Shooting MVSU VAN
Field Goals Made 19.6 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 55.2
Field Goal % 36.1% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 38.7% 58.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.0 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 9.1 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 13.8 25.6
Free Throw % 66.0% 70.7%
Ball Control MVSU VAN
Rebounds 29.5 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 21.2 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 11.7
Turnovers 13.6 8.6
Blocked Shots 1.7 3.6
Steals 4.7 7.5
Fouls 16.0 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Vanderbilt

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MVSU VAN
Total Possessions 68.3
Effective Scoring Chances 63.1 71.3
% of Possessions with MVSU VAN
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 27.6%
Player Fouled 18.3% 23.4%
Turnover 19.9% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 11.0% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MVSU VAN
Shot Blocked 6.6% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 35.5%