NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MVSU ISU
Points 43.2 85.5
Total Points   128.7
Points From 2-Pointers 21.8 44.1
Points From 3-Pointers 11.9 23.1
Points From Free Throws 9.5 18.3
Shooting MVSU ISU
Field Goals Made 14.9 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 45.0 54.3
Field Goal % 33.1% 54.8%
2 Pointers Made 10.9 22.1
2 Pointers Attempted 29.3 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 37.2% 61.1%
3 Pointers Made 4.0 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 15.7 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 25.3% 42.4%
Free Throws Made 9.5 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.4 25.8
Free Throw % 66.0% 70.8%
Ball Control MVSU ISU
Rebounds 24.6 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 17.4 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 11.7
Turnovers 19.9 8.5
Blocked Shots 1.8 3.8
Steals 5.5 11.8
Fouls 16.9 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa St

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MVSU ISU
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 54.6 70.5
% of Possessions with MVSU ISU
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 20.6% 22.8%
Player Fouled 20.3% 25.1%
Turnover 29.6% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 17.5% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MVSU ISU
Shot Blocked 7.1% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 40.3%