NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MVSU SOU
Points 52.1 70.2
Total Points   122.3
Points From 2-Pointers 25.8 34.4
Points From 3-Pointers 12.2 20.8
Points From Free Throws 14.2 14.9
Shooting MVSU SOU
Field Goals Made 16.9 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 45.6 51.3
Field Goal % 37.1% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 12.9 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 31.6 32.2
2 Point Shooting % 40.8% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 4.1 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 14.0 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 28.9% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 14.2 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 22.9
Free Throw % 66.0% 65.3%
Ball Control MVSU SOU
Rebounds 30.2 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 9.6
Turnovers 17.3 12.2
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.8
Steals 5.7 9.0
Fouls 15.7 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Southern

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MVSU SOU
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 59.3 66.0
% of Possessions with MVSU SOU
2 Point Attempt 40.4% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 17.9% 24.1%
Player Fouled 25.7% 22.9%
Turnover 25.2% 17.8%
Opponent Steal 13.2% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MVSU SOU
Shot Blocked 7.6% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 30.2%