NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MVSU SJU
Points 48.0 90.7
Total Points   138.7
Points From 2-Pointers 25.1 47.5
Points From 3-Pointers 11.9 23.5
Points From Free Throws 11.0 19.7
Shooting MVSU SJU
Field Goals Made 16.5 31.6
Field Goals Attempted 52.8 57.9
Field Goal % 31.3% 54.6%
2 Pointers Made 12.6 23.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 32.0% 62.5%
3 Pointers Made 4.0 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 13.6 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 39.5%
Free Throws Made 11.0 19.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 26.6
Free Throw % 66.0% 74.2%
Ball Control MVSU SJU
Rebounds 23.9 45.2
Rebounds - Defensive 15.4 30.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 15.0
Turnovers 15.1 9.1
Blocked Shots 1.5 6.5
Steals 5.9 7.9
Fouls 15.5 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: St Johns

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MVSU SJU
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 62.6 75.1
% of Possessions with MVSU SJU
2 Point Attempt 48.8% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 17.0% 23.4%
Player Fouled 21.6% 22.4%
Turnover 21.8% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 11.4% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MVSU SJU
Shot Blocked 11.3% 2.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.9% 49.3%