NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MVSU ARST
Points 56.3 87.1
Total Points   143.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 11.8 30.8
Points From Free Throws 11.2 17.4
Shooting MVSU ARST
Field Goals Made 20.6 29.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 59.1
Field Goal % 36.5% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 43.7 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 38.2% 58.6%
3 Pointers Made 3.9 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 12.8 25.9
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 39.6%
Free Throws Made 11.2 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 24.9
Free Throw % 66.0% 70.2%
Ball Control MVSU ARST
Rebounds 28.0 44.3
Rebounds - Defensive 19.5 30.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 14.2
Turnovers 11.5 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.7
Steals 5.7 6.2
Fouls 14.4 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MVSU ARST
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 74.7
% of Possessions with MVSU ARST
2 Point Attempt 54.7% 39.2%
3 Point Attempt 16.0% 30.6%
Player Fouled 20.9% 20.8%
Turnover 16.6% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MVSU ARST
Shot Blocked 8.1% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 42.2%