NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MVSU TXSO
Points 55.0 74.3
Total Points   129.3
Points From 2-Pointers 28.7 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 13.3 22.6
Points From Free Throws 13.0 16.0
Shooting MVSU TXSO
Field Goals Made 18.8 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 51.8 56.2
Field Goal % 36.3% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 14.4 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 40.5% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 4.4 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.4 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 27.1% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 13.0 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 21.8
Free Throw % 66.0% 73.6%
Ball Control MVSU TXSO
Rebounds 31.8 39.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 11.4
Turnovers 14.0 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.5
Steals 5.8 7.7
Fouls 14.8 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Miss Val St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MVSU TXSO
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 64.3 70.1
% of Possessions with MVSU TXSO
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 20.5% 26.6%
Player Fouled 23.1% 21.3%
Turnover 20.3% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 11.2% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MVSU TXSO
Shot Blocked 6.3% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 33.5%