NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NWST CARK
Points 72.7 72.6
Total Points   145.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 22.0
Points From Free Throws 15.4 16.5
Shooting NWST CARK
Field Goals Made 24.9 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 56.9
Field Goal % 41.7% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 15.4 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 21.9
Free Throw % 64.9% 75.3%
Ball Control NWST CARK
Rebounds 36.3 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 11.0
Turnovers 10.7 12.9
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.4
Steals 7.4 6.3
Fouls 15.6 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: NW State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NWST CARK
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 74.0 71.1
% of Possessions with NWST CARK
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 40.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 26.7%
Player Fouled 22.0% 21.3%
Turnover 14.7% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NWST CARK
Shot Blocked 7.8% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 30.8%