NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NWST LAM
Points 68.1 77.0
Total Points   145.1
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 40.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 18.8
Points From Free Throws 15.2 17.4
Shooting NWST LAM
Field Goals Made 23.2 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 58.9
Field Goal % 40.4% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 46.2% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 15.2 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 24.1
Free Throw % 64.9% 72.1%
Ball Control NWST LAM
Rebounds 35.0 39.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 13.4
Turnovers 12.8 11.6
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.5
Steals 5.9 6.3
Fouls 17.0 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Lamar

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NWST LAM
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 72.2 74.5
% of Possessions with NWST LAM
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 23.5%
Player Fouled 22.0% 23.4%
Turnover 17.6% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NWST LAM
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 31.7% 37.1%