NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NWST NICH
Points 70.4 76.9
Total Points   147.3
Points From 2-Pointers 37.0 34.7
Points From 3-Pointers 17.0 23.0
Points From Free Throws 16.3 19.2
Shooting NWST NICH
Field Goals Made 24.2 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 54.0
Field Goal % 42.0% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 32.4
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 16.3 19.2
Free Throws Attempted 25.2 26.5
Free Throw % 64.9% 72.4%
Ball Control NWST NICH
Rebounds 34.3 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 9.9
Turnovers 11.1 12.3
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.4
Steals 6.6 6.5
Fouls 17.0 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: NW State

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NWST NICH
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.8 70.4
% of Possessions with NWST NICH
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 38.6%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 25.7%
Player Fouled 23.5% 23.3%
Turnover 15.3% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NWST NICH
Shot Blocked 8.4% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 29.9%