NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NWST HOU
Points 49.7 89.5
Total Points   139.3
Points From 2-Pointers 21.4 46.2
Points From 3-Pointers 14.2 24.2
Points From Free Throws 14.2 19.2
Shooting NWST HOU
Field Goals Made 15.4 31.2
Field Goals Attempted 49.6 61.6
Field Goal % 31.1% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 10.7 23.1
2 Pointers Attempted 31.7 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 33.8% 60.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 26.3% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 14.2 19.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 26.6
Free Throw % 64.9% 71.9%
Ball Control NWST HOU
Rebounds 27.5 45.1
Rebounds - Defensive 18.1 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 16.8
Turnovers 16.1 7.3
Blocked Shots 1.7 8.3
Steals 3.9 9.7
Fouls 16.2 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NWST HOU
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 62.3 78.7
% of Possessions with NWST HOU
2 Point Attempt 38.8% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 26.9%
Player Fouled 23.2% 23.4%
Turnover 23.4% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 14.0% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NWST HOU
Shot Blocked 13.5% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 48.2%