NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NWST HCU
Points 82.1 73.9
Total Points   156.0
Points From 2-Pointers 50.8 42.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 13.6
Points From Free Throws 13.1 17.7
Shooting NWST HCU
Field Goals Made 31.5 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 64.4 55.9
Field Goal % 48.9% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 25.4 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 45.3 40.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.1% 52.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 4.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 15.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 29.2%
Free Throws Made 13.1 17.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 27.6
Free Throw % 64.9% 64.1%
Ball Control NWST HCU
Rebounds 35.7 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 12.0
Turnovers 9.5 13.4
Blocked Shots 4.2 2.6
Steals 7.5 5.1
Fouls 16.9 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: NW State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NWST HCU
Total Possessions 74.6
Effective Scoring Chances 77.0 73.1
% of Possessions with NWST HCU
2 Point Attempt 51.7% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.8% 17.6%
Player Fouled 18.0% 22.7%
Turnover 12.8% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NWST HCU
Shot Blocked 4.7% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 32.3% 33.4%