NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NWST SELA
Points 68.4 71.3
Total Points   139.7
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.9 21.3
Points From Free Throws 12.1 17.1
Shooting NWST SELA
Field Goals Made 24.5 23.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 53.7
Field Goal % 42.4% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 32.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.9% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 12.1 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 23.2
Free Throw % 64.9% 74.0%
Ball Control NWST SELA
Rebounds 32.8 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 11.5
Turnovers 11.3 13.1
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.6
Steals 6.3 6.5
Fouls 15.5 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: NW State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NWST SELA
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 68.8
% of Possessions with NWST SELA
2 Point Attempt 41.2% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 25.8%
Player Fouled 21.0% 22.0%
Turnover 16.1% 18.6%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NWST SELA
Shot Blocked 4.9% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.8% 34.1%