NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NWST NORL
Points 75.6 74.0
Total Points   149.5
Points From 2-Pointers 43.3 39.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.7 13.4
Points From Free Throws 16.5 20.8
Shooting NWST NORL
Field Goals Made 26.9 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 56.1
Field Goal % 46.0% 43.4%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.2 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 4.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.2 16.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 27.6%
Free Throws Made 16.5 20.8
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 29.4
Free Throw % 64.9% 70.6%
Ball Control NWST NORL
Rebounds 38.1 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 11.4
Turnovers 12.8 11.4
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.6
Steals 5.6 6.7
Fouls 19.5 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NWST NORL
Total Possessions 74.3
Effective Scoring Chances 74.3 74.3
% of Possessions with NWST NORL
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 18.3% 18.5%
Player Fouled 23.7% 26.2%
Turnover 17.2% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NWST NORL
Shot Blocked 8.2% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 34.8% 31.0%