NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NWST LSU
Points 63.6 85.3
Total Points   149.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 41.7
Points From 3-Pointers 17.4 22.5
Points From Free Throws 13.4 21.1
Shooting NWST LSU
Field Goals Made 22.2 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 54.8
Field Goal % 38.2% 51.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 43.4% 61.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 28.7% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 13.4 21.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 28.8
Free Throw % 64.9% 73.3%
Ball Control NWST LSU
Rebounds 29.6 41.0
Rebounds - Defensive 19.4 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 11.6
Turnovers 13.0 11.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 5.1
Steals 6.9 7.6
Fouls 17.0 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: NW State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NWST LSU
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 72.9
% of Possessions with NWST LSU
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 39.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 24.3%
Player Fouled 20.1% 23.2%
Turnover 17.7% 16.3%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NWST LSU
Shot Blocked 9.4% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 37.4%