NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NWST ULM
Points 71.6 75.4
Total Points   147.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 41.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 14.4
Points From Free Throws 15.2 19.2
Shooting NWST ULM
Field Goals Made 24.5 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 56.1
Field Goal % 44.9% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 4.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 29.4%
Free Throws Made 15.2 19.2
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 28.8
Free Throw % 64.9% 66.8%
Ball Control NWST ULM
Rebounds 31.7 39.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 13.7
Turnovers 11.7 11.0
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.4
Steals 5.5 6.4
Fouls 17.9 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: UL Monroe

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NWST ULM
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 74.4
% of Possessions with NWST ULM
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 18.9%
Player Fouled 23.8% 25.0%
Turnover 16.4% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NWST ULM
Shot Blocked 4.4% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 38.1%