NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JAC CARK
Points 75.5 68.5
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 30.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.2 22.7
Points From Free Throws 16.3 15.4
Shooting JAC CARK
Field Goals Made 25.4 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 54.0
Field Goal % 43.3% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 15.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 32.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 16.3 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 20.5
Free Throw % 69.8% 75.3%
Ball Control JAC CARK
Rebounds 38.7 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 8.9
Turnovers 10.6 12.5
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.1
Steals 8.3 6.5
Fouls 16.5 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Jacksonville

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JAC CARK
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 67.0
% of Possessions with JAC CARK
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 26.7%
Player Fouled 22.2% 23.4%
Turnover 15.0% 17.7%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 11.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken JAC CARK
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 36.4% 26.1%