NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JAC UAB
Points 67.5 80.4
Total Points   147.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.6 40.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 17.3
Points From Free Throws 13.4 22.5
Shooting JAC UAB
Field Goals Made 23.8 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 52.3
Field Goal % 40.4% 49.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 16.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 13.4 22.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 30.3
Free Throw % 69.8% 74.3%
Ball Control JAC UAB
Rebounds 32.6 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 20.0 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 10.7
Turnovers 11.7 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.2
Steals 6.5 6.6
Fouls 19.8 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Jacksonville

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JAC UAB
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 70.8
% of Possessions with JAC UAB
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 19.9%
Player Fouled 19.9% 28.2%
Turnover 16.6% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken JAC UAB
Shot Blocked 8.2% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 33.0% 34.9%