NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JAC FGCU
Points 67.0 69.5
Total Points   136.5
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 34.6
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 23.1
Points From Free Throws 12.9 11.9
Shooting JAC FGCU
Field Goals Made 23.5 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 53.0
Field Goal % 42.2% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 53.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 12.9 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 17.5
Free Throw % 69.8% 68.1%
Ball Control JAC FGCU
Rebounds 34.0 32.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 8.6
Turnovers 10.8 11.4
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.2
Steals 6.8 6.3
Fouls 15.5 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Jacksonville

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JAC FGCU
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 64.2
% of Possessions with JAC FGCU
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 42.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 27.4%
Player Fouled 20.3% 23.1%
Turnover 16.2% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken JAC FGCU
Shot Blocked 6.1% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 32.3% 27.6%