NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LEM MERC
Points 72.1 76.5
Total Points   148.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 32.7
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 27.4
Points From Free Throws 16.6 16.5
Shooting LEM MERC
Field Goals Made 24.1 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 48.3 54.2
Field Goal % 49.9% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 28.0 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 59.7% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 42.9%
Free Throws Made 16.6 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 20.3
Free Throw % 70.7% 81.3%
Ball Control LEM MERC
Rebounds 32.0 27.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 20.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 7.3
Turnovers 13.7 9.2
Blocked Shots 1.4 1.7
Steals 5.0 6.6
Fouls 17.9 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Mercyhurst

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LEM MERC
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 63.4 66.7
% of Possessions with LEM MERC
2 Point Attempt 36.0% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 27.8%
Player Fouled 24.0% 26.0%
Turnover 20.0% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken LEM MERC
Shot Blocked 3.2% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.6% 23.5%