NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JAC NORAL
Points 73.1 73.8
Total Points   146.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.2 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.7 21.0
Points From Free Throws 19.2 18.5
Shooting JAC NORAL
Field Goals Made 24.0 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.4 53.6
Field Goal % 43.3% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 34.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 16.9 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 19.2 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 27.5 24.0
Free Throw % 69.8% 77.2%
Ball Control JAC NORAL
Rebounds 36.4 32.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 8.1
Turnovers 9.5 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.1
Steals 5.4 5.0
Fouls 18.7 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: N Alabama

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JAC NORAL
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.4 68.0
% of Possessions with JAC NORAL
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 20.3% 24.2%
Player Fouled 24.5% 26.8%
Turnover 13.6% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken JAC NORAL
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 33.5% 25.0%