NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JAC UMASS
Points 70.9 76.8
Total Points   147.7
Points From 2-Pointers 40.0 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 16.7 17.1
Points From Free Throws 14.2 21.4
Shooting JAC UMASS
Field Goals Made 25.6 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 63.5 51.4
Field Goal % 40.2% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 44.8 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 14.2 21.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 28.8
Free Throw % 69.8% 74.3%
Ball Control JAC UMASS
Rebounds 35.9 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 14.4 9.3
Turnovers 10.4 12.7
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.9
Steals 8.3 6.2
Fouls 20.0 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Jacksonville

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JAC UMASS
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 76.4 69.1
% of Possessions with JAC UMASS
2 Point Attempt 50.7% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.2% 19.6%
Player Fouled 19.3% 27.6%
Turnover 14.4% 17.5%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 11.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken JAC UMASS
Shot Blocked 7.6% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 35.1% 30.3%