NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SF SIU
Points 72.5 66.3
Total Points   138.7
Points From 2-Pointers 44.7 25.4
Points From 3-Pointers 15.9 23.2
Points From Free Throws 11.8 17.7
Shooting SF SIU
Field Goals Made 27.7 20.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 49.0
Field Goal % 49.6% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 22.4 12.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 26.6
2 Point Shooting % 57.9% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 11.8 17.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 22.9
Free Throw % 74.2% 77.2%
Ball Control SF SIU
Rebounds 33.2 28.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 6.0
Turnovers 10.2 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.5 1.8
Steals 6.8 4.4
Fouls 18.3 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: S Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SF SIU
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 62.2
% of Possessions with SF SIU
2 Point Attempt 50.2% 35.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 29.5%
Player Fouled 22.6% 26.8%
Turnover 15.0% 17.5%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SF SIU
Shot Blocked 3.7% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 19.3%