NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORE CAL
Points 78.7 72.8
Total Points   151.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.8 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 26.1
Points From Free Throws 15.2 13.3
Shooting ORE CAL
Field Goals Made 28.0 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.7 60.9
Field Goal % 46.1% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 47.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 15.2 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 18.2
Free Throw % 72.9% 73.2%
Ball Control ORE CAL
Rebounds 37.6 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 28.5 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 9.4
Turnovers 8.5 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.8
Steals 5.7 4.7
Fouls 13.9 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORE CAL
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.2 71.7
% of Possessions with ORE CAL
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 42.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 30.8%
Player Fouled 21.7% 19.2%
Turnover 11.7% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORE CAL
Shot Blocked 4.6% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 24.9%