NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORE ASU
Points 75.4 67.7
Total Points   143.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.4 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 20.0
Points From Free Throws 14.8 12.7
Shooting ORE ASU
Field Goals Made 26.4 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 57.4
Field Goal % 45.4% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.0 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 30.3%
Free Throws Made 14.8 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 19.5
Free Throw % 72.9% 65.3%
Ball Control ORE ASU
Rebounds 39.5 32.3
Rebounds - Defensive 30.0 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 7.1
Turnovers 10.8 10.0
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.7
Steals 5.9 6.4
Fouls 14.7 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Arizona St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORE ASU
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 69.1
% of Possessions with ORE ASU
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 27.5%
Player Fouled 21.8% 20.5%
Turnover 15.1% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORE ASU
Shot Blocked 6.5% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 19.2%