NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORE ARIZ
Points 73.0 82.9
Total Points   155.9
Points From 2-Pointers 38.9 43.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 22.5
Points From Free Throws 12.1 16.6
Shooting ORE ARIZ
Field Goals Made 26.8 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 60.4
Field Goal % 43.0% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 21.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 54.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 12.1 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 23.3
Free Throw % 72.9% 71.0%
Ball Control ORE ARIZ
Rebounds 32.0 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 11.0
Turnovers 10.6 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.8
Steals 6.7 6.5
Fouls 16.0 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Oregon

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORE ARIZ
Total Possessions 74.4
Effective Scoring Chances 72.0 74.6
% of Possessions with ORE ARIZ
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 23.5%
Player Fouled 20.3% 21.5%
Turnover 14.3% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORE ARIZ
Shot Blocked 6.4% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.9% 31.6%