NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUQ DAY
Points 64.3 69.5
Total Points   133.8
Points From 2-Pointers 32.7 31.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 23.2
Points From Free Throws 8.9 14.8
Shooting DUQ DAY
Field Goals Made 23.9 23.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 51.4
Field Goal % 41.2% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 15.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.8 29.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.4% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.2 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 8.9 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 12.1 19.8
Free Throw % 73.4% 74.7%
Ball Control DUQ DAY
Rebounds 31.9 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 7.5
Turnovers 9.7 10.6
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.6
Steals 6.1 5.2
Fouls 15.2 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUQ DAY
Total Possessions 66.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 63.0
% of Possessions with DUQ DAY
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 39.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 28.6%
Player Fouled 18.0% 22.9%
Turnover 14.7% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUQ DAY
Shot Blocked 7.1% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 24.7%