NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JMU APP
Points 72.7 74.1
Total Points   146.8
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 43.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.3 17.1
Points From Free Throws 11.2 13.9
Shooting JMU APP
Field Goals Made 27.0 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 68.1 59.5
Field Goal % 39.7% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 46.0 41.4
2 Point Shooting % 42.6% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 11.2 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 20.0
Free Throw % 69.7% 69.5%
Ball Control JMU APP
Rebounds 37.9 40.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 31.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 9.4
Turnovers 8.6 11.4
Blocked Shots 2.3 5.7
Steals 8.2 4.8
Fouls 15.1 12.1

Playing Style Advantage: App State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JMU APP
Total Possessions 74.0
Effective Scoring Chances 77.0 72.1
% of Possessions with JMU APP
2 Point Attempt 52.4% 49.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 21.5%
Player Fouled 16.3% 20.4%
Turnover 11.6% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 11.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken JMU APP
Shot Blocked 9.6% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 26.4%