NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JMU FAU
Points 77.7 77.4
Total Points   155.1
Points From 2-Pointers 40.4 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 19.5
Points From Free Throws 12.6 18.9
Shooting JMU FAU
Field Goals Made 28.4 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 64.0 55.9
Field Goal % 44.4% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.5% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 12.6 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 26.0
Free Throw % 69.7% 72.6%
Ball Control JMU FAU
Rebounds 35.2 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 10.1
Turnovers 9.8 11.7
Blocked Shots 2.0 2.8
Steals 6.8 5.9
Fouls 17.9 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: James Mad

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JMU FAU
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 75.2 72.2
% of Possessions with JMU FAU
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 40.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 25.0%
Player Fouled 18.7% 24.2%
Turnover 13.3% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken JMU FAU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 29.5%