NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JMU GMU
Points 71.1 68.6
Total Points   139.8
Points From 2-Pointers 32.2 33.9
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 17.6
Points From Free Throws 13.6 17.2
Shooting JMU GMU
Field Goals Made 24.5 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 50.5
Field Goal % 42.3% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 13.6 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 23.2
Free Throw % 69.7% 74.1%
Ball Control JMU GMU
Rebounds 32.9 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.4 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 8.6
Turnovers 9.4 12.8
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.9
Steals 7.9 4.7
Fouls 17.2 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: James Mad

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JMU GMU
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 64.9
% of Possessions with JMU GMU
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 23.8%
Player Fouled 21.4% 25.0%
Turnover 13.6% 18.5%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 11.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken JMU GMU
Shot Blocked 5.7% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 27.8%