NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCCU HOW
Points 75.6 77.2
Total Points   152.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 23.6
Points From Free Throws 18.5 19.6
Shooting NCCU HOW
Field Goals Made 25.2 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 53.8 53.8
Field Goal % 46.8% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 31.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 54.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 18.5 19.6
Free Throws Attempted 26.8 25.7
Free Throw % 69.0% 76.0%
Ball Control NCCU HOW
Rebounds 30.0 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 21.0 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 11.5
Turnovers 9.5 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.9
Steals 6.0 4.1
Fouls 17.4 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Howard

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCCU HOW
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 70.3
% of Possessions with NCCU HOW
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 37.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 27.1%
Player Fouled 25.2% 24.6%
Turnover 13.5% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCCU HOW
Shot Blocked 5.4% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 35.4%