NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COPP DUKE
Points 49.3 87.2
Total Points   136.5
Points From 2-Pointers 27.5 40.8
Points From 3-Pointers 12.8 28.2
Points From Free Throws 9.0 18.2
Shooting COPP DUKE
Field Goals Made 18.0 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.3 55.8
Field Goal % 33.2% 53.4%
2 Pointers Made 13.7 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 36.1% 62.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.3 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 26.2% 41.1%
Free Throws Made 9.0 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 12.4 25.4
Free Throw % 72.6% 71.6%
Ball Control COPP DUKE
Rebounds 24.0 43.7
Rebounds - Defensive 16.6 30.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 13.7
Turnovers 14.0 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.7
Steals 5.1 8.9
Fouls 15.1 12.1

Playing Style Advantage: Duke

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COPP DUKE
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 61.7 72.0
% of Possessions with COPP DUKE
2 Point Attempt 49.0% 39.7%
3 Point Attempt 21.0% 27.6%
Player Fouled 17.8% 22.2%
Turnover 20.5% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 13.0% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken COPP DUKE
Shot Blocked 8.5% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 45.2%