NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BC DUKE
Points 70.6 79.1
Total Points   149.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 38.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.7 27.4
Points From Free Throws 9.8 13.6
Shooting BC DUKE
Field Goals Made 26.8 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 59.3
Field Goal % 45.4% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 9.8 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 13.2 18.9
Free Throw % 74.4% 71.5%
Ball Control BC DUKE
Rebounds 31.5 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 10.3
Turnovers 9.3 8.0
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.5
Steals 4.6 6.0
Fouls 13.7 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Boston Col

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BC DUKE
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 70.3
% of Possessions with BC DUKE
2 Point Attempt 49.2% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 29.2%
Player Fouled 19.0% 20.1%
Turnover 13.6% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken BC DUKE
Shot Blocked 6.1% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 30.6%