NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EWU MTST
Points 79.3 76.9
Total Points   156.2
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 30.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 33.0
Points From Free Throws 19.6 13.6
Shooting EWU MTST
Field Goals Made 26.3 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 50.7 57.5
Field Goal % 51.8% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 15.2
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 30.9
2 Point Shooting % 61.8% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 11.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 26.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 41.3%
Free Throws Made 19.6 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 25.3 18.7
Free Throw % 77.5% 72.4%
Ball Control EWU MTST
Rebounds 34.7 27.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 20.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 6.8
Turnovers 13.4 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 1.9
Steals 4.9 7.8
Fouls 17.1 20.4

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EWU MTST
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 68.7
% of Possessions with EWU MTST
2 Point Attempt 38.6% 38.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 33.0%
Player Fouled 28.1% 23.6%
Turnover 18.4% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 10.8% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken EWU MTST
Shot Blocked 3.3% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 19.8%