NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GASO TXST
Points 72.4 73.5
Total Points   145.9
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 39.8
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 12.4
Points From Free Throws 14.1 21.2
Shooting GASO TXST
Field Goals Made 25.1 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 53.9
Field Goal % 44.7% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.5 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 48.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 4.1
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 12.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 14.1 21.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 30.2
Free Throw % 71.5% 70.3%
Ball Control GASO TXST
Rebounds 32.2 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 11.5
Turnovers 13.2 12.0
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.4
Steals 6.6 7.3
Fouls 18.9 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GASO TXST
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 72.2
% of Possessions with GASO TXST
2 Point Attempt 39.2% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.4% 14.6%
Player Fouled 20.7% 26.0%
Turnover 18.2% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken GASO TXST
Shot Blocked 6.4% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 33.0%