NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EMU WMU
Points 67.8 73.3
Total Points   141.1
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 37.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 24.2
Points From Free Throws 10.4 12.0
Shooting EMU WMU
Field Goals Made 25.7 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 59.6
Field Goal % 42.4% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 40.9 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 10.4 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.6 19.4
Free Throw % 66.6% 61.5%
Ball Control EMU WMU
Rebounds 33.8 41.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 13.5
Turnovers 9.4 10.6
Blocked Shots 1.6 2.9
Steals 5.8 4.8
Fouls 15.0 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: W Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EMU WMU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 72.7
% of Possessions with EMU WMU
2 Point Attempt 50.6% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 29.5%
Player Fouled 19.2% 21.6%
Turnover 13.5% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken EMU WMU
Shot Blocked 4.9% 2.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 36.1%