NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MORE BUT
Points 70.8 73.0
Total Points   143.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.3 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 26.3 21.1
Points From Free Throws 8.2 14.1
Shooting MORE BUT
Field Goals Made 26.9 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 58.2
Field Goal % 44.1% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 51.8% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 25.9 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 8.2 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 11.2 17.6
Free Throw % 73.2% 80.1%
Ball Control MORE BUT
Rebounds 36.1 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 7.6
Turnovers 11.1 8.8
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.7
Steals 6.1 5.6
Fouls 14.4 10.8

Playing Style Advantage: Morehead St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MORE BUT
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 68.3
% of Possessions with MORE BUT
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 32.2% 26.3%
Player Fouled 15.5% 20.7%
Turnover 15.9% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MORE BUT
Shot Blocked 4.7% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 22.5%