NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WIN UNCA
Points 73.1 76.1
Total Points   149.1
Points From 2-Pointers 31.8 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.6 25.8
Points From Free Throws 19.7 17.4
Shooting WIN UNCA
Field Goals Made 23.1 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.7 55.6
Field Goal % 43.0% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 32.1 30.8
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 19.7 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 28.4 23.2
Free Throw % 69.3% 75.0%
Ball Control WIN UNCA
Rebounds 35.0 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 9.4
Turnovers 11.9 11.4
Blocked Shots 2.6 5.0
Steals 5.3 5.5
Fouls 18.1 19.0

Playing Style Advantage: Winthrop

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WIN UNCA
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 70.0
% of Possessions with WIN UNCA
2 Point Attempt 37.9% 37.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 30.1%
Player Fouled 26.4% 25.2%
Turnover 16.5% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken WIN UNCA
Shot Blocked 9.1% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 27.8%