NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FGCU USF
Points 64.1 74.4
Total Points   138.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.2 30.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 29.5
Points From Free Throws 9.8 14.6
Shooting FGCU USF
Field Goals Made 23.5 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 55.3
Field Goal % 41.7% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 15.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 29.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 9.8 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 14.3 20.1
Free Throw % 68.1% 72.6%
Ball Control FGCU USF
Rebounds 34.5 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 8.3
Turnovers 11.9 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.7
Steals 5.2 6.6
Fouls 15.2 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: S Florida

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FGCU USF
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.6 67.5
% of Possessions with FGCU USF
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 38.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 33.2%
Player Fouled 18.8% 22.3%
Turnover 17.5% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken FGCU USF
Shot Blocked 4.9% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 24.8%