NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EMU BUFF
Points 70.2 70.6
Total Points   140.8
Points From 2-Pointers 42.1 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 21.2
Points From Free Throws 9.7 11.0
Shooting EMU BUFF
Field Goals Made 27.2 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 63.5 59.5
Field Goal % 42.8% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 21.0 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 44.4 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 56.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 25.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 28.1%
Free Throws Made 9.7 11.0
Free Throws Attempted 14.6 15.3
Free Throw % 66.6% 71.6%
Ball Control EMU BUFF
Rebounds 37.0 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 9.5
Turnovers 9.4 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.4
Steals 6.0 5.9
Fouls 12.4 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: Buffalo

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EMU BUFF
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 69.2
% of Possessions with EMU BUFF
2 Point Attempt 53.3% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 31.1%
Player Fouled 16.9% 17.6%
Turnover 13.3% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken EMU BUFF
Shot Blocked 7.5% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 26.9%