NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MORE EKY
Points 75.4 67.0
Total Points   142.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 36.7
Points From 3-Pointers 27.6 17.4
Points From Free Throws 12.7 12.9
Shooting MORE EKY
Field Goals Made 26.8 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 62.3 60.2
Field Goal % 43.0% 40.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 43.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.6% 42.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.8% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 12.7 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 18.6
Free Throw % 73.2% 69.3%
Ball Control MORE EKY
Rebounds 40.7 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 10.8
Turnovers 9.1 8.6
Blocked Shots 3.6 4.7
Steals 5.2 4.7
Fouls 13.8 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Morehead St

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MORE EKY
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 72.6 71.4
% of Possessions with MORE EKY
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 52.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 21.2%
Player Fouled 18.6% 20.0%
Turnover 13.1% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MORE EKY
Shot Blocked 8.0% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 33.1% 27.6%