NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EMU BGSU
Points 68.2 75.0
Total Points   143.3
Points From 2-Pointers 41.2 41.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 18.0
Points From Free Throws 8.8 15.4
Shooting EMU BGSU
Field Goals Made 26.7 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 59.1
Field Goal % 44.7% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 42.0 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 49.1% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 28.8%
Free Throws Made 8.8 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 13.2 21.2
Free Throw % 66.6% 72.7%
Ball Control EMU BGSU
Rebounds 32.3 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 11.1
Turnovers 10.1 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.7
Steals 5.0 6.1
Fouls 15.1 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Bowling Grn

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EMU BGSU
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 72.1
% of Possessions with EMU BGSU
2 Point Attempt 53.2% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 25.4%
Player Fouled 17.9% 21.5%
Turnover 14.4% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken EMU BGSU
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 31.1%