NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCCU MARQ
Points 62.1 86.7
Total Points   148.8
Points From 2-Pointers 28.8 43.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 29.0
Points From Free Throws 12.0 14.3
Shooting NCCU MARQ
Field Goals Made 21.5 31.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 58.8
Field Goal % 37.8% 53.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.4 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 31.1
2 Point Shooting % 41.4% 69.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 27.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 12.0 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 20.8
Free Throw % 69.0% 68.8%
Ball Control NCCU MARQ
Rebounds 31.1 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 10.2
Turnovers 12.8 8.6
Blocked Shots 1.4 4.9
Steals 4.8 6.3
Fouls 15.3 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: NC Central

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCCU MARQ
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 71.9
% of Possessions with NCCU MARQ
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 38.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 34.1%
Player Fouled 18.8% 21.8%
Turnover 18.2% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCCU MARQ
Shot Blocked 8.3% 2.6%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 32.6%