NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCCU UMES
Points 72.5 64.4
Total Points   136.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.6 34.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 15.6
Points From Free Throws 17.4 14.6
Shooting NCCU UMES
Field Goals Made 24.3 22.3
Field Goals Attempted 54.2 56.5
Field Goal % 44.8% 39.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 25.5%
Free Throws Made 17.4 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 25.3 20.3
Free Throw % 69.0% 71.8%
Ball Control NCCU UMES
Rebounds 37.5 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 10.8
Turnovers 10.7 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.8
Steals 6.0 4.9
Fouls 15.5 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland ES

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCCU UMES
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 69.6
% of Possessions with NCCU UMES
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 25.0%
Player Fouled 24.0% 22.2%
Turnover 15.4% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCCU UMES
Shot Blocked 4.9% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 31.4% 28.9%