NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BC MIA
Points 76.8 73.3
Total Points   150.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 35.2
Points From 3-Pointers 32.9 28.5
Points From Free Throws 9.0 9.6
Shooting BC MIA
Field Goals Made 28.4 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 63.0 61.3
Field Goal % 45.2% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.0 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 50.1%
3 Pointers Made 11.0 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 29.9 26.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 9.0 9.6
Free Throws Attempted 12.1 13.4
Free Throw % 74.4% 71.6%
Ball Control BC MIA
Rebounds 36.3 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 9.2
Turnovers 9.1 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.8
Steals 6.0 6.1
Fouls 12.6 10.8

Playing Style Advantage: Boston Col

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BC MIA
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 69.5
% of Possessions with BC MIA
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 37.1% 32.5%
Player Fouled 15.4% 18.0%
Turnover 13.0% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken BC MIA
Shot Blocked 4.7% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.2% 25.6%