NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FGCU NORAL
Points 72.9 70.8
Total Points   143.7
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 33.0
Points From 3-Pointers 21.8 23.9
Points From Free Throws 13.3 13.9
Shooting FGCU NORAL
Field Goals Made 26.2 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 57.0
Field Goal % 46.2% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.2% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 13.3 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 18.1
Free Throw % 68.1% 77.2%
Ball Control FGCU NORAL
Rebounds 35.5 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 8.0
Turnovers 9.1 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.5
Steals 4.8 4.8
Fouls 14.3 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: N Alabama

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FGCU NORAL
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 68.5 67.5
% of Possessions with FGCU NORAL
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 28.0%
Player Fouled 21.7% 20.8%
Turnover 13.3% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken FGCU NORAL
Shot Blocked 4.6% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 23.1%